So This Happened…16th April 2025
The cost of tariffs visualised: What 5 charts say about the future of ad spend
Why It Matters:
While the tariff situation is fast moving and changing on a pretty much daily basis, it's already becoming clear that there will be a significant shift in the advertising landscape that directly affects retail media networks and commerce platforms this year. Digital ad growth projections have been revised downward from 9.9% to 9.1%, with social media growth facing an even steeper decline from 11.5% to 10.7%.
For anyone involved in the media space, this represents a critical moment to reassess strategy. With 94% of U.S. advertisers concerned about tariff impacts and 60% anticipating budget cuts between 6-10%, retail media networks will face increased pressure to demonstrate clear ROI and closed-loop measurement. The potential $10 billion reduction in social ad spending particularly threatens shoppable content strategies that rely on social commerce integration.
Additionally, e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu, who have been major drivers of social commerce advertising, may pull back significantly, creating ripple effects across the digital retail ecosystem. This comes at a pivotal time when CTV and retail media integrations are accelerating, with partnerships like Walmart Connect and Disney+ recently launching shoppable formats.
For media planners, the resilience hierarchy is becoming clear – Amazon's retail media network is positioned strongly alongside Google and Meta as a performance-driven channel that can demonstrate clear sales outcomes in uncertain times. Meanwhile, second-tier platforms like Pinterest and Snapchat that have been expanding their shoppable capabilities may face greater challenges as advertisers consolidate spending.
Smart retail media players will recognise this moment as an opportunity to emphasise their measurement capabilities, strengthen first-party data offerings, and showcase how their platforms can drive immediate commerce outcomes in a potentially contracting market.
Expanded programmatic capabilities at Sky Media ‘will democratise live sport’
Why It Matters:
Sky has taken a significant step in democratising access to premium advertising inventory by launching a private marketplace (PMP) in partnership with The Trade Desk, allowing programmatic bidding on live sports content for the first time, including major sporting events such as the Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Formula 1, and more.
Given that 98% of Sky's sports content is watched live, this allows brands of all sizes, who may have previously been excluded to do costs, to engage with with the highly attentive sports audiences.
The new capabilities enable smaller or regional brands to target geographic segments of streaming audiences – for example, focusing on passionate fans of a local football club rather than committing to expensive national campaigns. This granular approach reflects the shift toward audience-based buying we've witnessed across the digital advertising ecosystem.
Sky's democratisation of sports advertising exemplifies how premium publishers are finding new ways to make their inventory more accessible and measurable, similar to how retailers have transformed their digital shelf space into valuable advertising real estate.
Meta Is Racing for Retail Media Budgets
AdWeek
Why It Matters:
And speaking of Meta, against the backdrop of possible forced breakup in its FTC antitrust trial, the company has started to aggressively pursue the burgeoning retail media market to diversify revenue streams.
As Mark Zuckerberg faces potential forced divestiture of Instagram and WhatsApp—platforms that generate a substantial portion of the company's $135+ billion annual revenue—the company is clearly hedging its bets by strengthening relationships with retailers and making a push into the lucrative retail media market.
The centrepiece of this strategy is Meta's marketplace API, which addresses what has historically been retail media's strongest differentiator: closed-loop attribution.
The API's ability to let both marketplace operators and individual brands know whether specific Meta ads drove actual sales represents a significant advancement in attribution capabilities. For example, in the example cited in the article, if DeWalt purchases an ad on Meta to drive sales at Home Depot, both DeWalt and Home Depot can now track whether that specific ad resulted in a purchase.
By lowering the barrier for marketplace APIs from 20,000 unique sellers to a more accessible threshold in 2024, Meta has opened this capability to emerging retail media networks, not just established giants.
This attribution enhancement directly challenges what has made retail media networks so attractive to advertisers - their ability to connect ad exposure directly to sales. While retailers have long had the advantage of first-party purchase data, Meta's move to share product-level reporting and impression logs enables similar attribution capabilities within its ecosystem, potentially keeping ad dollars that might otherwise flow to retailers' owned channels.
Meta's strategy mirrors how Google has been expanding its retail media offerings through partnerships with companies like Walmart Connect and Target's Roundel, even as it faces its own antitrust reckoning.
For both tech giants, retail media represents a potential lifeline—a growing segment of digital advertising that could continue functioning even under structural remedies that might separate their core businesses.
Meta's new multi-product carousel ads with AI-powered personalisation, which drive 21% higher incremental ROAS for omni-channel campaigns versus e-commerce-only ads, demonstrate how the company is leveraging its core technical advantages to secure its position in retail media. Meanwhile, its expanded data-sharing practices represent a significant shift for a company that has historically guarded its data closely.
What's particularly telling is the timing. As Meta works to curry favour with the Trump administration (having scrapped fact-checking services and made multiple White House visits), it's simultaneously building commercial bulwarks against potential regulatory action. The competition is also intensifying, with TikTok and Snap both ahead of Meta in the social commerce space.
For retailers and brands, this regulatory pressure on tech giants creates a potential opportunity—more favourable terms, better data access, and increased competition for their advertising dollars. However, it also raises questions about the continuation of the Meta / Google duopoly, as well as increased competition for the existing retail media networks.
Meta to use public posts, AI interactions to train models in EU
Reuters
Why It Matters:
Meta's announcement that it will begin training its AI models on public content from EU users represents a significant development for retail media networks and commerce platforms operating in European markets, though not without controversy. After months of regulatory hurdles related to GDPR compliance, Meta has finally secured approval to use public posts and comments from Facebook and Instagram to enhance its AI capabilities across the EU.
This development will have substantial implications for brands, but also raises important privacy considerations.For retailers and brands operating in the EU, this means Meta's AI systems will soon have a much better understanding of European consumer preferences, local nuances, and regional shopping behaviours. This enhanced comprehension will likely translate to improved targeting capabilities for retail media campaigns, more effective personalisation in shoppable content, and potentially higher conversion rates for commerce integrations on Meta platforms.
However, the privacy implications cannot be overlooked. While Meta is providing an opt-out mechanism, privacy advocates argue that this approach flips the GDPR's consent model on its head, effectively making data collection the default rather than seeking explicit permission first. This tension between personalization benefits and privacy protections creates a complex landscape for retailers to navigate.According to recent data, social commerce-driven sales in Europe are projected to reach €143 billion by 2026, with Meta platforms accounting for approximately 65% of those transactions.
However, research also shows that 72% of European consumers express concerns about how their data is used for AI training, potentially affecting their trust in brands advertising on these platforms.This privacy dimension adds a layer of complexity for marketers, who must balance the enhanced targeting capabilities against potential consumer backlash. Brands advertising through retail media partners will need to consider how their association with Meta's data practices might affect consumer perception of their own privacy standards.
For marketers, the practical impact will include both opportunities and challenges:
More accurate product recommendations within shoppable posts
Better understanding of regional shopping preferences* Enhanced conversational commerce capabilities through Meta AI
Improved performance of dynamic creative optimisation for product advertisements
Potential consumer trust issues requiring transparent communication about data usage
Brands should closely monitor how these AI enhancements affect both campaign performance and consumer sentiment in the coming months, potentially developing contingency plans if privacy concerns escalate into regulatory action or consumer backlash.
Is retail media recession proof?
Why It Matters:
While retail media is feeling the impact of tariffs, it appears better positioned than most channels to weather the storm. Andrew Lipsman, independent analyst at Media, Ads + Commerce, explains: "In recessionary times, there tends to be a flight to certainty—in this case, a flight to performance advertising—where CFOs are demanding higher accountability for media spend.
"Even with potential spending pullbacks, retail media is projected to maintain double-digit growth rates while traditional channels may stagnate or contract. This resilience is directly tied to measurability and connection to sales outcomes.
However, the picture isn't uniform across all categories: Discretionary goods like toys and games are seeing the sharpest ad spending cuts as tariffs hit hardest. Essential categories show greater resilience in both consumer demand and associated media spend.
The National Retail Federation still projects 2.7%–3.7% growth in retail sales for 2025, though warns that sharp tariff hikes could slow consumer spending. As budgets consolidate, dollars will likely flow to proven retail media platforms that can deliver both reach and return. The ability to demonstrate incrementality—true net-new business impact—will separate market leaders from the pack.
"Brands are prioritising marketplaces that are delivering growth," says Julie Spear, partner at Acadia. "If growth stalls, they're quick to reallocate budgets to proven players like Amazon and Walmart.
"Intriguingly, some well-funded and agile sellers—particularly those with experience navigating high shipping costs and tariffs—are actually increasing their retail media investments during this volatile period, potentially gaining market share as competitors pull back. This competitive reshuffling could lead to a significant market shakeout, with stronger players emerging in stronger positions.
For marketers navigating this landscape, the message is clear: build flexibility into your retail media strategy now, prioritise measurable performance, and be ready to pivot as tariff policies and economic conditions continue to evolve.
MPs call for streaming levy to help UK TV industry
Why It Matters:
A cross-party committee of UK MPs has proposed that streaming giants like Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, and Apple TV+ should contribute 5% of their UK subscription revenue to a cultural fund supporting British television and film production.
The fund, to be administered by the British Film Institute (BFI), aims to safeguard distinctly British content at a time when domestic production is declining despite the UK's popularity as an international filming destination.
Recent data paints a concerning picture: domestic high-end TV production in the UK fell by 27% last year, with corresponding spending down 25%. The Culture, Media and Sport (CMS) committee argues this decline threatens content that is vital to the country's "identity, national conversations and talent pipeline." The proposal reflects a fundamental power shift in the industry.
While streaming platforms have invested heavily in UK facilities—Netflix considers the UK its largest production hub outside North America—much of this content targets global rather than specifically British audiences. However, streaming services strongly oppose the proposal. Netflix argues such levies would "diminish competitiveness and penalise audiences who ultimately bear the increased costs."
The Association for Commercial Broadcasters and On-Demand Services (COBA) warns the levy could inadvertently reduce budgets for UK content, harm jobs and growth, and ironically undermine public service broadcaster dramas by cutting co-production budgets.
The committee has set a deadline: if the industry doesn't voluntarily establish such a fund within a year, MPs recommend the government introduce a statutory levy.
The UK proposal follows similar measures in approximately 17 European countries. These initiatives aim to help public service broadcasters compete against well-resourced streaming companies. The committee's recommendations extend beyond the streaming revenue fund, including:
Enhanced tax incentives for domestic high-end TV production
Support for independent cinemas, including potential VAT cuts on cinema tickets
Regular reviews of tax breaks to maintain the UK's global production hub status
Better support for freelancers, potentially including minimum hourly wages
Stronger regulations for AI use in creative content
A national awareness campaign about industry employment opportunities
This debate represents a critical juncture for British media policy. At stake is not just the future of British television but also the balance between cultural protection and market competition in an increasingly globalised entertainment landscape. The outcome will likely have significant implications for content creators, streaming platforms, and audiences alike.
